The results of the 2024 U.S. presidential election have solidified Donald J. Trump’s return as the 47th President of the United States. This development has significant ramifications for the global intellectual property (IP) landscape, particularly in relation to U.S.-China relations. Reflecting on Trump’s previous tenure (2017–2021), during which IP became a central issue in U.S.-China trade disputes, this article explores potential policy directions and their global impact, offering a comprehensive analysis of the challenges and opportunities that may arise.

I. A Retrospective on Trump’s IP Policies (2017–2021)

During Trump’s first term, his administration prioritized IP protection as a fundamental element of U.S. trade policy, particularly with respect to China. Key initiatives included:

1. Section 301 Investigation and Tariffs
In 2017, the U.S. launched a Section 301 investigation under the Trade Act of 1974, accusing China of engaging in forced technology transfers and intellectual property violations. This investigation resulted in significant tariffs on Chinese goods, amounting to hundreds of billions of dollars.

2. International Rules and Bilateral Negotiations
Through negotiations, the Trump administration secured the U.S.-China Phase One Trade Agreement, which called for China to enhance its IP protections. The agreement addressed issues such as combating piracy, strengthening patent protections, and prohibiting forced technology transfers.

3. Advancing IP System Reform
Domestically, the Trump administration strengthened the U.S. IP enforcement regime by enhancing the role of the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO), increasing penalties for patent infringement, and implementing stricter regulations for foreign entities seeking IP protection in the U.S.

These policies heightened global awareness of China’s IP practices, prompting China to accelerate reforms in its IP system.

II. Potential Policy Directions Under Trump’s Return

Should Trump return to office, his administration is likely to maintain a firm stance on IP, particularly in relation to China. Key policy directions may include:

1. Leveraging IP in Trade Negotiations
Trump may again use IP as a negotiating tool in trade talks with China, demanding further market access and stronger enforcement of IP protections.

2. Technology Decoupling and Export Restrictions
The U.S. may intensify efforts to decouple its technological relationship with China, implementing export controls that restrict China’s access to advanced U.S. technologies. This could have broad implications for global technology flows and innovation ecosystems.

3. Multilateral Pressure and Unilateral Actions
The U.S. may collaborate with other developed economies to exert collective pressure on China to strengthen its IP enforcement. At the same time, it could resort to unilateral actions, such as sanctions targeting Chinese entities involved in IP violations.

III. Challenges for China’s IP Development in a Global Context

1. Increased International Scrutiny
The Trump administration may intensify criticism of China’s IP protection practices, particularly in the areas of patents, trademarks, and copyrights. This could increase the operational risks for Chinese companies in international markets, especially when exporting to the U.S. and Europe.

2. Greater Restrictions on High-Tech Industries
Should the Trump administration impose stricter regulations on high-tech sectors, Chinese tech companies may face heightened challenges in securing international patents and engaging in cross-border collaborations, necessitating increased investment in R&D.

3. Increased Complexity in Negotiations
The U.S. may use IP-related issues to exert additional pressure on China, compelling it to make concessions in global IP negotiations. This could weaken Chinese companies’ bargaining power on the global IP stage.

4. Disruption of Cross-Border IP Flow
Policymaking geared toward technological decoupling could hinder the licensing of IP and the transfer of technology between the U.S. and China, limiting opportunities for collaborative innovation and impeding the growth of China’s domestic high-tech industries.

IV. Impact on China’s IP Development and Countermeasures

1. Accelerating the Development of an Independent IP System
Pressure from the U.S. may serve as a catalyst for China to strengthen its innovation capabilities. While China has made substantial progress in patent filings and trademark registrations, further advancements are necessary, particularly in core technological sectors. In response to international pressures, Chinese companies may seize this opportunity to boost R&D investments and refine their IP protection systems.

2. Enhancing IP Internationalization
Stronger IP enforcement could drive China to refine its global IP strategy, particularly in markets aligned with the Belt and Road Initiative. Expanding into these regions would help Chinese enterprises enhance their international competitiveness while mitigating trade and IP risks.

3. Aligning Legal Frameworks with International Standards
To address potential international criticism, China could further align its IP legal framework with global standards. Strengthening IP protection and enhancing the efficiency of judicial bodies handling IP cases would help build international confidence in China’s IP system. Additionally, greater cooperation with international organizations such as WIPO could help China gain a stronger voice in global IP discussions.

4. Developing Alternative Technologies and Emerging Markets
In response to restrictions, Chinese companies may accelerate the development of alternative technologies, reducing reliance on foreign innovations. Strengthening patent portfolios in emerging sectors such as electric vehicles, artificial intelligence, and green energy would not only bolster China’s global competitiveness but also attract foreign technology investments.

V. Strategic Considerations for the Global IP Community

1. Promoting Open and Fair IP Systems
Governments, businesses, and international organizations must work together to ensure that IP frameworks remain open and inclusive, fostering cross-border innovation and cooperation.

2. Encouraging Cross-Border Collaboration
The global IP community should aim to balance enforcement with accessibility, ensuring that technological innovation and knowledge transfer are not hindered by geopolitical factors.

3. Strengthening Multilateral Platforms
Organizations like WIPO should play a central role in mediating disputes and facilitating dialogue between nations to ensure a more equitable global IP framework.

4. Adopting a Multi-Regional Perspective
Stakeholders must recognize the growing influence of emerging economies in shaping global IP systems. By building partnerships in regions such as Asia, Africa, and Latin America, nations can foster a more diversified and resilient global innovation ecosystem.

Conclusion

Trump’s return to the presidency is likely to see the continuation of stringent IP policies, which will have far-reaching implications for China and the broader global IP landscape. While these policies may pose challenges, they also highlight the need for global cooperation in advancing IP standards and fostering innovation.

As the world adjusts to these changes, it is critical to adopt a balanced and inclusive approach, ensuring that IP systems serve as enablers of global innovation rather than obstacles to progress. By seizing this pivotal moment, nations can work together to create a fair, transparent, and dynamic IP environment that benefits all stakeholders.